Wednesday Night September 22nd 2010
19:00 CEDEM Gala Party

Day 1 – Wednesday, September 22nd 2010

08:00 | Breakfast presentation by CB Richard Ellis

09:30 – 10:30 | CEE's Office sector crisis: Follow the GDP
Will demand come back? There have been tentative signs of revival, but around Central Europe, most of the deals taking place are simply renegotiations. When will companies actually need more space? It doesn't actually take a genius to answer these questions. Sometime after the region's economy begins to turn, when production begins to grow and employment figures start improving, office requirements will follow. Working out exactly which green shoots to believe in is the real trick.

10:30 – 11:30 | Yield compression all over again ... History repeating itself?
Are we getting the same old story again? Current benchmarks in CEE for prime properties have slipped into the low 7's and 6-somethings are sometimes discussed. Are these just old instincts kicking in again, and are aggressive investors just looking for trouble? This panel will discuss the case for and against the current pricing assumptions and how the various markets in the region stack up against each other. Special attention will be paid to whether the current enthusiasm for Polish assets is sustainable.

11:30 – 11:50 | Coffee Break: Sponsored by Berlin Hyp/Landesbank Berlin

11:50 – 12:45 | Logistics: Edging away from the brink of disaster?
Developers in CEE are slowly beginning to find tenants for their hundreds of thousands of meters of vacant warehouses. Thanks to lowered rents, the trickle of deals has turned into a regular flow, and with new supply cut off virtually completely, vacancy figures can only get better. Those lower rents, however, won't tempt developers back into new builds, so pockets of undersupply are likely to emerge in more successful locations. When will equilibrium be found? How many months of supply are still empty?

12:45 – 13:45 – Lunch

13:45 – 14:45 | Hope or despair? Debate the analysts
There's very little agreement on where Central Europe real estate is headed. But there's also a total lack of strong opinions, as most observers prefer rather unhelpfully to sit on the fence. In this panel, two top analysts will put their cards on the table, giving their prognosis for CEE's property markets before opening themselves up to challenges from the session's moderator, from each other, and from the floor.

14:45 – 15:45 | The real green shoots: Why developers now need LEED or BREEAM certification, and how to do it

Thanks to the rise energy costs and the end of society's tolerance for environmentally unsustainable buildings, certifying new buildings is barely an option. Banks might still finance their development, and some multinationals with immature corporate responsibility departments may agree to rent them, but will institutional investors still be interested in buying them five years from now? For better or worse, it's no longer good enough to put the word green on new project brochures and photoshop in some leafy trees. This panel will explore the process of getting certification along with the risks of putting off the inevitable.

Day 2 – Thursday, September 23rd 2010

09:30 – 10:30 | CEE residential: The case for caution
Despite persistently slow sales, residential developers in CEE have been holding on for dear life to their original price expectations. But the reality is that prices have slipped in most markets between 10 to 20 percent. Is it now time for developers to cut their losses, sell off existing stock at lower prices and start again? What happens when completed new stock built for today's market begins to hit the market? Will old projects be competitive with new ones when demand actually returns?

10:30 – 11:30 | The real story isn't new finance ... It's refinancing
Developers continue to complain that getting new finance deals continues to be incredibly difficult. In fact, the big issue for real estate banks over the next 12 months will be refinancing, as loans handed out as the credit crisis was about to explode reach maturity. How are banks positioning themselves to deal with these old problems? What will happen to developers and investors who can't meet the new equity requirements? Who's taking the lead in these cases? Banks? Clients? Or third parties interested in getting in on the action?

11:30 – 11:50 | Coffee Break: Sponsored by Berlin Hyp/Landesbank Berlin

11:50 – 12:45 | Retail developers vs. Europe's coming austerity packages
With the current sovereign debt scare, government austerity measures are unlikely to encourage people to go back to their shop-happy ways any time soon. Where does this leave the retail sector? What has the performance of malls over the past year told us about the strength of the CEE consumer? Is it better for investors to snap up the few prime malls that may be available, or is now the time to hold out for distress? Are those retailers choosing to expand through the crisis looking for unbeatable deals in hot new developments, or looking for space in established shopping centers?

12:45 – 13:45 - Lunch